The Brighton Seagull's guide to the General Election 2024

What seats are there in and around Brighton? Who’s running to become your MP? Will the Greens keep their only seat in the country now that Caroline Lucas has stepped down? And how will Labour fare now Lloyd Russell-Moyle is gone from Kemptown?

Kemptown and Peacehaven (previously just Brighton Kemptown), has had its boundaries changed to a not insignificant degree since the previous election. Now, unlike previous years, part of Hanover and Elm Grove has been moved to the constituency from Brighton Pavilion.

Peacehaven has been a part of the constituency since 1997, where previously it was in the Lewes constituency, but only now is it getting the recognition it deserves in the constituency's name!

From its formation in 1950, Kemptown largely returned Conservative MPs, until the 1997 General Election in which Des Turner was elected for Labour. He remained the MP until 2010, when the Conservative MP Simon Kirby was voted in.

In the 2019 election, Lloyd Russell-Moyle was re-elected with 25,033 votes. Russell-Moyle's majority was 8,061 over the Conservatives and almost 23,000 over the Greens who finished in fourth place.

Is the incumbent standing?

Lloyd Russell-Moyle had been the Labour MP since 2017. He was reselected by the constituency to run in this election, but he was suspended by the party on Tuesday 28th May for misconduct allegations he alleges were timed to prevent him from standing.

Enter Chris Ward. Labour then parachuted Keir Starmer's former chief of staff and leadership campaign manager Chris Ward into the seat as their candidate under controversial circumstances. He's currently director and head of Labour unit at Hanbury Strategy, working to 'help clients navigate what could be the next government', with clients having included Navitas Petroleum, controversial prize company Omaze, and gambling company Flutter. He currently lives in Lewisham, London.

Challengers

Khobi Vallis, 34, is running for the Conservatives. She's a communications director, former civil servant, and lives in the Dorking and Horley constituency. Her website says she 'provides strategic political counsel', and that she used to work for the civil service supporting ministers across the Home Office and the Department for Digital, Culture, Media and Sport.

Who are the other candidates?

• Stewart Stone, 65, is a former recruitment consultant who lives in Kemptown and Peacehaven, and is running for the Liberal Democrats.
• Valerie Gray, who lives in Mid Sussex, is running for the Social Democratic Party. She describes herself as 'centre left politically but socially conservative', a unionist, and a 'proud Zionist'.
• Elaine Ghoneim is running for the Workers Party.
• Emma Wall is running as an independent, and lives in Brighton and Hove.
• Elaine Hills is running for the Green Party, and is a former councillor and university lecturer who lives in Brighton and Hove.

Who will win?

The seat has been Conservative for 48 of its 74-year existence (1950-64, 1970-97, 2010-17); the rest of the time it's gone to Labour.

However, Labour haven't been blessed with the largest majorities in the seat. Its first win in 1964 by Dennis Hobden (Sussex's first ever Labour MP) was secured with a majority of just seven votes. Russell-Moyle's majority decreased by nearly 2,000 votes from 2017 (when he won by 9,868) to 2019 (when he won by 8,061).

While there's a lot of resentment in the local Labour party about Russell-Moyle's ouster, which will hurt Ward's ability to turn out activists, the potential challengers face an even steeper climb. The Greens, who might be expected to challenge from the left, have never been a substantial challenger for Kemptown—the Lib Dems managed better than them in 2019—and seem to be putting the majority of their effort into retaining Pavilion. The Conservatives, meanwhile, have to contend with the fact that nationally they're about as popular as a punch in the face. This taken into account, the Seagull predicts that Brighton Kemptown and Peacehaven will, by a slim margin, return Chris Ward.

Brighton Pavilion was held by the Conservatives until 1997, when the Labour landslide turned the seat red under former council leader David Lepper. Lepper announced in 2006 that he would be standing down at the next general election, which took place in 2010.

Caroline Lucas, the country's first (and to this day only) Green MP, was elected in 2010 and held that seat, increasing her vote share across three elections, In the 2019 General Election, Lucas received 33,151 votes (57.2% of the vote share).

Is the incumbent standing?

Caroline Lucas announced she would not be standing for re-election in June 2023. Siân Berry was voted in by members of the Brighton and Hove Green Party as her replacement. She was co-leader of the Greens from 2018-2021, a London Assembly member from 2016-2024, Green London mayoral candidate in 2008, 2016, and 2021, and Camden Council member for Highgate from 2014-2023. Some have contended that Berry has been parachuted into Pavilion direct from London, given her long history as an elected representative for that city and her Camden address.

Challengers

The most likely contender to Berry is Labour's candidate, Tom Gray. He's a musician, activist, and Mercury Prize winner thanks to his band, Gomez. He founded the Broken Record campaign in March 2020, calling for better payments for musicians from streaming platforms, and he defeated Suzy Izzard to become the Labour candidate for this election.

Who are the other candidates?

• Carl Buckfield, who is the candidate for Social Democratic Party
• Ashley Ridley, running for the Liberal Democrats
• Mark Francis Mulvihill of Reform UK (whose name was spelt incorrectly on the flyer delivered to a member of Team Seagull)
• Citizen Skwith, running for the The Official Monster Raving Loony Party
• AI Steve (Independent), the generative AI face of a real man named Steve Endacott, who self-describes as a 'capitalist with a social conscience' (does anyone actually know what this means?) and, according to his website, 'lives in Rochdale with his new wife'. Will Steve get his election deposit back?
• Sarah Victoria Webster, who is running for the Conservative and Unionist Party

Who will win?

A lot has changed since 2019 for Pavilion. The boundaries have changed following the 2023 review and are first contested in the upcoming election. No candidates (except for Citizen Skwith) are returning from 2019, so there's an element of unfamiliarity on the ballot paper. Caroline Lucas had a significant personal vote, and the Green vote collapsed at last year's council elections, neither of which bode well for Siân Berry—but taking into account differences in national vs local voting patterns and given the size of the Greens' current majority, we predict she will be returned, but with a slimmer majority than Lucas.

Like Pavilion, Hove was traditionally a Conservative bastion until the election of the recently-in-the-news Ivor Caplin in 1997. It flipped blue again in 2010, before electing the current Labour MP Peter Kyle in 2015. In the last general election in 2019, Peter Kyle was re-elected with 58.3% (32,876) of the vote, a 30.2% majority over Conservative councillor Robert Nemeth.

Is the incumbent standing?

Peter Kyle is standing for re-election, and stands to become a prominent member of the cabinet. His career has taken off since Keir Starmer became leader of the party in 2020: he was Shadow Secretary of State for Northern Ireland from November 2021 to September 2023, Shadow Minister for Schools from May 2021 to November 2021, and has been Shadow Secretary of State for Science, Innovation and Technology since September 2023. One of his main focuses in recent months has been AI, especially its possible use in diagnosing lung cancer, and ensuring that 'regulation does not unnecessarily slow down innovation'.

He was also appointed as vice-chair of Labour Friends of Israel in September 2020, and has faced backlash in his constituency for his reluctance to vote in favour of a permanent ceasefire in Gaza.

Challengers

The most likely opposer to Peter Kyle is Conservative candidate Carline Deal, an army veteran who runs Trinity Yoga in Beckenham and Bonum iDeas, a London-based medical technology company, and director of the British Sub Aqua Club, which she says gives her a passion for cleaner seas. She was one of three Conservative candidates for Beckenham Town & Copers Cope in 2022, where she was not elected and received 1,676 votes. She did not attend the hustings at Hove Town Hall in June.

Who are the other candidates?

• Sophie Broadbent, who works to support people in advertising in responding to the climate crisis, is running for the Green Party.
• Martin Hess, an advisor to tech businesses who says 'I don't see myself as a politician but rather I am a very concerned citizen of the UK', is running for the Reform Party.
• Tanushka Marah is challenging Peter Kyle on his refusal to vote in favour of a ceasefire in Gaza, is standing as an independent.
• Michael Wang, an immigration lawyer, is running for the Liberal Democrats.

Who will win?

Hove and Portslade is one of only 55 constituencies whose boundaries remained unchanged after their review last year ('and Portslade' is the only new addition), so previous election results are much easier to translate into a prediction for this year. Although Peter Kyle has faced backlash for his stance on the war in Gaza, it seems overwhelmingly likely that he will keep the seat—perhaps, as data from Electoral Calculus suggests, with an even bigger majority.

Key dates

• Deadline for applying for a proxy vote: 26 June 
• Deadline for applying for a Voter Authority Certificate: 26 June
• Election day: 4 July